Sunday, August 12, 2007

新視界》在虛擬世界 實驗經濟新理論

新視界》在虛擬世界 實驗經濟新理論
【經濟日報╱官如玉】

2007.08.12 03:23 am


如果你認為「第二人生」、「魔獸世界」等線上世界只是供人玩樂的,那你可就大錯特錯了。商管學院教授和經濟研究員,開始把這些虛擬世界變成充滿動力的實驗室,試圖揭開一些經濟行為的神秘面紗。

學習現實商業運作

7月初,「第二人生」一間人滿為患的會議室,熱烈的討論著股票交易的演進、主管單位的角色以及新經濟所面臨的其他議題。

這場研討會由康乃爾大學商學院教授布魯菲德(Robert Bloom-field)主持,在現實世界中,他擅長利用實驗室實驗以及數學模式,研究金融市場管制對投資人會產生何種效益,以及心理層面如何影響金融市場。

布魯菲德表示,有些未來學家深信「第二人生」或者其他的虛擬世界,會成為網路的未來,「我希望利用虛擬世界,來教導學生現實世界的商業運作。」

事實上,許多經濟研究人員紛紛利用虛擬環境來測試一些想法,包括賽局理論、管制效應等。

1989年來,布魯菲德就開始在實驗室進行實驗,他建立小型的賽局經濟,研究一些比較狹隘的議題。直到美國金融會計標準局日前找他研究如何建立金融會計標準,儘可能協助投資人,他馬上就想到,或許可以在虛擬世界中找到答案。

從遊戲中尋找解答

他表示,利用實驗室中的八個人,在實驗室裡玩非常簡單的經濟遊戲,來解決金融會計標準局的複雜問題,實在非常困難。

於是他開始尋求建立一個更切實際的經濟體:有更多的玩家,而且複雜度更高,沒多久,他就發現虛擬世界正符合這些條件。

布魯菲德指出,現今的虛擬經濟,和百年前無為而治的美國經濟十分類似,「第二人生」等虛擬世界讓學生有機會了解管制的目的何在,為何要管制,是什麼力量促使最後定案的管制條例出現。

在印地安納大學,研究人員卡斯壯諾華(Edward Castronova)也提議創造幾個虛擬經濟體,以研究不同管制政策會造成的效益,「如此,就可以在涵蓋所有社群的層次下進行有計劃的研究實驗,這是社會科學家以前一直辦不到的。」

被研究人員盯上的線上世界不只是虛擬股市,行銷人員早已利用虛擬世界測試行銷活動、包裝以及消費者滿意度。百事已追蹤there.com上的產品使用狀況,Starwood飯店一旦有新房間設計,就拿到「第二人生」試賣。

汽車廠商也利用虛擬世界,展示新的內部裝潢和附加配備。更有商管學院教授建議,虛擬世界可以作為現實世界的企業催生者。

全球教學研究平台

有關線上經濟體發展方向、用途的討論逐漸加溫。例如,在「第二人生」7月的研討會上,可望接任「第二人生資產交易所」執行長的懷斯表示,他深信市場的力量,認為交易所管愈少愈好。

「第二人生交易委員會」理事長蘇沙則認為,儘管這個虛擬交易所懂得自我監督,他還是希望大家體認到,為了一個正面的未來,遊戲規則不可或缺。他表示,「第二人生」只有四年歷史,還會發生很多事,而且還有很大的成長空間。

商學院開始積極抱虛擬世界的一切可能性。布魯菲德利用暑假組織「研究世界」,號召教授和科技專家共同建構一個全球性的虛擬平台,供教學、研究之用。這個構想已獲得不少的回響。

(取材自美國商業周刊)

【2007/08/12 經濟日報】

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價值服務 成功方程式

價值服務 成功方程式
【經濟日報╱黃麗秋】

2007.08.12 03:23 am


蘋果ipod狂銷熱賣,台灣製造業者與有榮焉。鏡頭前,Made in Taiwan再度受到全球的肯定。但是,加州大學爾灣分校三位研究員的ipod成本分析報告指出,ipod Video 30G(第五代產品),零售價299美元當中,163美元屬於美國企業與勞工,80美元給蘋果,日本、美國、台灣、中國大陸等451個零組件製造商分到的是8美元,而且還要依製造商的零件重要性再細分。這份報告讓我們看到鏡頭後,國內代工廠陷於價格泥沼的無奈與辛酸。

連科技大廠的獲利空間都被如此壓縮,更何況是中小企業?悲觀的人或許如此認為,事實上,不少國內中小企業以「價值服務」開創了獲利桃花源,亞洲園藝工具業龍頭、全球零售業巨人沃爾瑪指定供應商金屯工業就是一個例子。

中小企業過去擅長製造、拚良率、低成本的代工模式,但在微利化日趨嚴重與贏者圈擴大的挾攻下,中小企業改走發展自我品牌路線,以提升競爭力。然而,品牌沒有等價服務,內涵便會顯得空洞,做的依舊是代工事業,計較的依舊是幾毛的利潤。價值服務則扭轉製造先行,往服務端進行整合。

顧客在哪,辦公室就在哪

因此,價值服務成為國內中小企業,繼自創品牌後,全球征戰的下一招棋。他們不是拿訂單交貨收錢了事,而是擺脫純代工的模式,主動出擊。

以生產鐮刀起家的金屯工業為例,創辦人許金鈍從彰化福興鄉街頭小店,1打賣1美元做起,後來產品打算外銷美國,他們不採透過貿易商代理的方式,親自從逛賣場嗅出商機。金屯工業觀察到美國家庭大都有庭院,照顧庭園確實對工具有需求,但大賣場陳售的工具品項少,價格也不便宜。

金屯工業自行研發商品,還從日本進口特殊鋼,提高產品的附加價值,並到美國設立服務據點,並且就地建立發貨倉庫、物流中心,直接與賣場洽談產品價格、陳列銷售。

與沃爾瑪合作後,金屯不僅比照模式辦理,還為他們獨家研發質優價廉、附加功能多的新產品,讓其他競爭者黯然退場。金屯工業也陸續把這套成功公式套用在歐洲、澳洲。

體貼服務,創獲利桃花源

價值服務正一步步把台灣中小企業,從過去隱身幕後的代工角色,蛻變為舉足輕重的品牌商,開創獲利桃花源。因為小,中小企業必須更戰戰兢兢,步步為營;因為小,他們必須與價格分道,與價值交融。最壞的時代,也是最好的時代,台灣製造業因價值服務進入二部曲,未來除了服務端整合功夫必須了得外,為顧客預測商機的基礎也需打好。

(作者是中國生產力中心能力雜誌主編)

【2007/08/12 經濟日報】

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文化創意產業的困境與出路

文化創意產業的困境與出路

享譽盛名的宜蘭國際童玩藝術節不堪連年虧損,由宜蘭縣長宣佈暫時停辦。此一消息傳開,立即引起立場迥異的政黨相互指責。本文想回歸專業討論,以他山之石探討文化創意產業的困境與出路。

1995年,宜蘭縣政府團隊透過吳靜吉教授的安排參觀了法國亞維儂國際藝術節,得到很大的啟發。翌年,適逢漢人開墾宜蘭兩百年的歷史時刻,經過一年的規劃,正式推出國際童玩節之活動,以演出、展覽、遊戲、交流四大軸線,突顯「在地文化」、「親子同樂」、「學習交流」、「四海一家」等特色。結合冬山河親水公園的整治,提昇了宜蘭的地景風貌與觀光產業。前五屆的童玩節非常成功,累計超過230萬參觀人次,總經濟流量超過27億元,被譽為「宜蘭神話」。但之後入園人數逐年下降,今年開園到七月底為止,只有25萬人次,已然入不敷出,停辦是不得已的決定。

從最具創意、行銷最成功的節慶活動到暫停舉辦,可以想知國內文化創意產業的脆弱性。大家都可以同意,臺灣的競爭力優勢不再是勞力密集的製造業,而是高附加價值的創意設計,例如在華人世界中,臺灣的出版業、流行音樂、建築與室內設計執牛耳地位,即是自由開放環境下所激盪出來的成果。但淺碟式、無深度內涵、不重視人才培育的創意產業容易被複製,形成一窩蜂模仿的現象,過度供應終將造成市場疲乏,最後被淘汰。不過,資本主義的力量又會催逼出新的「風尚」,歷經崛起、極盛、衰頹到滅亡,不斷循環。

童玩節的壓力來自各方面。香港迪士尼的開辦,吸引不少臺灣遊客。國內各縣市政府所舉辦之觀光活動,從台北牛肉麵節、苗栗桐花季、屏東東港黑鮪魚季到金門料羅灣長泳,令人目不暇給。與親水、戲水主題有關的民間主題樂園更是如火如荼推出,暑假旺季客源多有分散。倘若節慶內涵無法推陳出新,便不再具有優勢。

這幾年,金門公部門卯足全力推動觀光活動,從傳統廟會的城隍遶境出巡到欣賞冬季候鳥的鸕鶿季,從金寧的石蚵節到金湖的花蛤季,努力值得肯定。但在曇花一現的熱鬧背後,這些活動如何轉化為文化創意產業,其實是一個值得深思的課題。知名劇場導演賴聲川教授分析:文化創意產業弔詭的地方,正在於它很難憑空設計出來,必須有所依據,才能在上面加入企業企圖。是故,好的創意才能創造價值;如果我們發展得出純粹的創意,它將是具有無限可塑性的經濟潛能;但如果我們刻意為經濟效益而發展創意,它將很難被開發出來。政大校長吳思華進一步指出:創意並不只是個人才賦,而是來自整個社會的創意生態系統;一個完整的創意生態系統需要很多元素來組成,包括創意人、創意競賽、創新活動、創作展演、創業家、創投資金、創意的生活方式,以及好的創新政策,和蓬勃多元的創意文化產業等;在建構創新生態系統時,內容與機制均不可缺,只有透過內容與機制交互依存,才能演化滾動出一個經濟社會的複雜系統,積累文化的根基,將傳統賦予新生活力,鋪陳在真實世界中,同時展現不同個體生命的獨特性與主體性。從這些標準檢視之,我們的活動仍有很大的進步空間。

從宜蘭童玩節的經驗可知,其成功之處在於整合產官學三方的機制,以創意為主題,善用冬山河的環境美學,引領市場風潮;其失敗之處也在於未能及時創新,失去獨特性與吸引力,進而導致結束的命運。文化創意產業是金門需走之路,從宜蘭經驗可以有所借鏡。


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Wednesday, August 01, 2007

Seven rules for observational research: how to watch people do stuff

Article ID:
19971208
Published:
December 1997
Author:
Walt Dickie

Seven rules for observational research: how to watch people do stuff
Editor's note: Walt Dickie is a partner at Creative & Response Research Services, Inc., Chicago.

Observational research, ethnography, or, in plain English, watching people do stuff, seems to be hot these days. Newsweek touts it ("Enough Talk," August 18, 1997), which means it's getting to be mainstream, but I find that a lot of clients aren't very comfortable with it.

Certainly, compared to traditional focus groups, mini-groups, or one-on-one interviews, observational research accounts for a pitiably small portion of most research budgets. Yogi Berra's famous line that "You can observe a lot just by watching" is widely acknowledged, but observation remains the most under-utilized qualitative technique in marketing research.

One of the reasons seems to be that many clients (and researchers) just don't know how to get value out of watching. Nothing sours people on a good approach more permanently than a few "interesting but useless" projects.

Learning from watching is, in fact, hard. If you ask a not-very-deep question in a focus group, you still may get a deep and revealing answer. But if you don't know how to think about what you'll see when you watch normal people doing stuff, you won't learn much from it. And in observational research, as in all qualitative research, it's the "thinking about" that's the key.

Since observation skills don't get sharpened up in real life the way questioning skills do, you need to train yourself to see, learn, and think when you watch people do stuff. It takes some practice, and some discipline. I don't pretend to have mastered the art, but I've learned some techniques that will help. So here are my "Seven Rules for Observational Research."

Look for the ordinary, not the extraordinary
Remember the qualitative project when the lady in the third seat on the right side of the table told the story that really made it all come clear to you? You know how you wait behind the mirror for the moderator to show the new concept so you can hear real consumers respond to it for the first time and all the questions that have been running around your mind for weeks will finally be answered? That's probably not going to happen in an observational study.

Most observational projects I've worked on have begun with a pretty nervous period while we all get past our first impression that nothing's happening! People aren't "doing" anything! They're just going about their business, and nothing that they're doing looks surprising! They're making lunch for their kids, the same way I would if I were in their shoes. They're waiting for their cars to be serviced, the same way I do. If my clients are along, they begin to get very antsy at this point, because they're seeing the same thing I am: nothing out of the ordinary.

Rule 1 for observational researchers: "Ordinary" is what you're there to observe. If you don't go looking for something extraordinary, you won't be so anxious when it doesn't appear. What you're really looking for are the insights hidden in "ordinary."

Observation gives you the chance to answer those questions such as "What do you do when that happens?" that come up all the time in focus groups. Suddenly you're not restricted by respondents' memories, or their reluctance to discuss the issue in a group, or their desire to conceal what they really do in order to present a more admirable face to the rest of the group.

Nothing people do is "natural"
The first time you try observational research, I guarantee that you'll find yourself wondering what there is about the things you're seeing that requires an explanation. You may watch people walking into a retail environment. They'll walk in, look around to get their bearings, walk over to a display or proceed down an aisle, maybe pick up an item or two or compare prices. "Of course," you'll say to yourself, "that's just what I'd do in their shoes. It's just common sense."

Rule 2: Whatever you saw could have happened differently. Your shoppers could have taken more time to get their bearings, or less time. They might have gone down a different aisle. They might have picked up more items, or not as many. They might have sought help from an employee. They might have, but they didn't. What they did needs to be explained.

Start noticing the regularities: do most people need a period of time to get their bearings when they come into the store? Where are they when they do this? Where do they look? What do they see there? Is there something about the store environment that makes them do things they way they're doing them? Is the way they're behaving the optimum way you want your customers to behave? Look at the "rule breakers." Who are they? What regularities are they defying?

Once you recognize that everything people do is the result of something, you can begin looking for that something. Maybe it's something about them. Or the people they're with. Or the environment they're in. Or something. How do you find it?

"I am the master of the obvious"
When I was first learning to conduct and analyze focus groups, Saul Ben Zeev, who founded C&R Research and is now its chairman, told me that the psychologist, Bruno Bettelheim, his teacher, referred to himself as "the master of the obvious." For Bettelheim, it was the secret of his success. Saul trotted that out whenever one of us was stuck for a place to start working on qualitative data (and still trots it out from time to time, now that I mention it).

Think about the last series of focus groups you conducted. What was the most obvious thing about what you saw and heard? That's where to start: If it's really obvious, then it must be really basic. What does it mean? How did people get there? What does it lead to? This was one of the first things I ever learned about qualitative, and remains one of the few really valuable generalizations I know about qualitative analysis.

The same thing is true about observation. Rule 3: Be the master of the obvious. Take the most obvious thing you've observed. Maybe you were watching people wait to have their cars fixed, and they "didn't do anything." Maybe they actually nodded off in the waiting area! Maybe they spent the whole time looking bored. That's about all you saw, and you've been poring over your field notes looking for something to get a handle on ever since.

Ask yourself why they were so bored - and remember that boredom isn't natural. Humans are the most curious creatures on earth. The room had a TV, a bunch of magazines, today's newspaper, some sales material and POP. Why didn't they get interested in any of that?

Were they interested in anything? Not really - they'd get up, check on the progress of their cars, then sit down and nod off again. But maybe that's it: all they were interested in was their cars - not the TV or the magazines or newspapers, and certainly not the POP. They wanted to see what was happening with their cars! And that's all they wanted to see. How's that for obvious?

Don't fear the details
The car repair story is real - I once spent a week watching people nod off waiting for their cars to be repaired. I was Jane Goodall and they were the chimps. And I got more and more panicky as I saw less and less "happening." Then I started thinking about the obvious things I could see.

One seat in the waiting room actually had a pretty good view of the car repair bays, and two or three had decent views. None of the others really let you see your car at all. Luckily, I had detailed notes: I knew where people had sat and how long they sat in each seat.

As I reconstructed scenes, it became more and more clear that people tended to sit in one of the "good" seats unless they were occupied or someone was sitting in the next seat and there were a lot of other empty seats available. When the waiting room was empty, I looked carefully at the carpet and the upholstery of the "good" seats and, sure enough, the wear patterns showed that what I had seen that week had been going on for a long time. There really were good seats and bad seats and you could tell which was which by checking out the sight lines.

Since the project was about developing criteria for understanding waiting-area designs, this was an important piece of information. A good design would put the car center stage and use the fact that customers were riveted to that stage as a way to organize the space and its communication elements. The path for the rest of the analysis was pretty clear.

Rule 4: God is in the details. Take good notes. Make videotapes. Think about where people walk, stand, sit, and look. For how long. Doing what. With whom.

The whole activity
After "master the obvious," the next most valuable thing I've learned about observation is, "identify the whole activity."

Here's an example: We were observing people using a newly designed gasoline pump on a summer day some years ago. One of the first "pay at the pump" designs, it allowed drivers to insert a credit or ATM card so they could pay without having to walk to the cashier's station. We noticed a number of motorists driving up to the pump, getting out and looking at it, then climbing back into their cars, apparently searching for something. They'd get back out of the car, go back to the pump, and read the directions - which seemed to present some difficulty. At a certain point we began walking up to people who had done this odd little in-and-out-of-the-car dance and asking what they were doing: "Looking for my reading glasses."

There are two points to this little vignette: The first is that a concept isn't reality. In this case we found that: (a) drivers don't wear reading glasses to drive (although lots wear sunglasses), so pump directions need to be designed for legibility even without glasses (or with the wrong glasses), (b) this particular design failed because the user couldn't make it work without reading the directions, and (c) respondents in several focus groups leading up to this test hadn't noticed the problem, since they had their reading glasses on, nor had the experienced researchers working on the design (us, unfortunately).

The second is that the observational perspective redefines the object of study. We went into this project thinking, as the client did, that we were going to study people pumping gas. But we quickly saw that pumping gas was part of a larger activity - people driving their cars from point A to point B - and that it had to be altered to fit into that activity. By failing to appreciate the demands of the whole activity, our client had neglected to think about glasses, or driving glasses vs. reading glasses, or sunglasses. All their research had abstracted pumping gas as the activity of interest - setting up experimental situations or taking pump designs into focus groups - and it took observation to put it back into its context.

Rule 5: The "whole activity" is the key to what the consumer is trying to accomplish. Think of activities as rings of context. Pumping gas takes place inside the "driving somewhere" ring, which takes place inside the "going home from work" ring, and so forth. Most research projects involve single activity units like pumping gas, or kitchen clean-up, or visiting a fast-food drive-thru; but these aren't generally whole activities. The whole activity is a set of behaviors that includes these small units plus at least one layer of context. It's "what's going on" from the consumer point of view, and it may be very different from what you (and your client) think is going on.

To get clues about a whole activity, look at how people enter the activity you're trying to observe, and how they exit. What's going on just before and just afterward? How do they get to the point you're interested in? What and who do they bring with them? What mental state are they in? How do they leave? What do they take with them and what do they leave behind?

The whole activity defines the parameters for the unit activity you want to understand.

Let the arrow find the target
It's a Zen idea. If you strive to place the arrow in the bullseye, you'll miss. If you let the arrow find the bullseye, it will fly unerringly. Observation, like all qualitative techniques, takes some Zen. If your task is too tightly defined, all you'll see is what you expected to see.

This doesn't mean that you should leave everything up in the air. The project won't define itself. You need to put together observation forms and some kind of debriefing protocol. You need to keep your notes up to date, and debrief yourself regularly. (I find that talking into a tape recorder as I drive from observation point to observation point works best for me.) But make sure you leave a lot of room for "other" in your materials.

Every observation form I make has space for what the client and I think the key issues and behaviors are; specific areas we want detailed information on. But every one also has a big space for comments or something equally open-ended. And as projects go on, those comment areas always seem to get more and more filled up.

This is where you'll find the things that suddenly seem obvious, and where all the context issues will land. I guarantee that you won't find either the most obvious aspects of the activity you're observing or the clues to the whole activity in the detailed parts of your note forms. In fact, if you do, I think you should be dubious about your findings because you've probably missed something (unless you're a lot luckier and smarter than I am). Rule 6: the most obvious things are obvious only in hindsight, and context doesn't appear until it appears in real action.

Marry observation with traditional qualitative
You can learn a lot by watching, to rephrase Mr. Berra, but you can learn even more by watching and talking.

There is absolutely no better way to go into focus groups, one-on-ones, or mini-groups than with your mind full of observational detail and insight. No better way to look at collages, photo albums or other projective vehicles than with a firm grounding in real behavior. Nor can I think of a better way to follow up on qualitative analysis than going out and observing people doing stuff. Each layer adds dimension and analytic richness, and the richer the stew of data, the more savory it is.

Observation isn't the be-all and end-all of research, and neither are focus groups or any other silver-bullet solutions - which seem to be proliferating at an almost frightening pace. We've been doing collage research here at C&R for quite a few years now, and we really like it. But it's not the One True Technique that you'd think it was if you believed its press. Same thing for giving people disposable cameras, having them wear beepers, or (I swear I heard a serious discussion of this) hypnotizing them to retrieve their deeply repressed memories (about their childhood experiences with a client's breakfast cereal, or whatever). Do you have the feeling that someone could sell focus groups done in a swimming pool because respondents would be more relaxed while floating in warm water?

My own feeling is that the deepest understanding social phenomena comes from combining an analysis of what people do with an analysis of what people have to say - observation plus traditional qualitative. So, as Rule 7, I offer that marriage as the strongest foundation on which to erect a qualitative analysis.



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